Marine Conflict Monitor
Marine war-risk premium series, event-scraped from trade press with recorded review. Every point links its primary source. War-risk premiums lead physical trade flows — reroutings and transit declines — and are roughly coincident with commodity prices. Read the methodology before interpreting these as risk signals.
At a glance
Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium
Log scale. Each mark spans the quoted low–high range (never collapsed to a midpoint); no line is drawn between quotes because no value is known between them. Dashed horizontals are the empirical friction/halt thresholds; E-tags mark events listed below.
Data table (5 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-16 | — | 0.2–0.3 | Reuters via gCaptain |
| 2025-06-23 | 0.5 | — | Reuters via gCaptain |
| 2026-06-30 | 1.0 | — | Al Jazeera |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 2.0–6.0 | Marcus Baker, Marsh, via Bloomberg/gCaptain |
| 2026-07-23 | — | 7.5–10.0 | Al Jazeera |
Red Sea war-risk premium
Log scale. Each mark spans the quoted low–high range (never collapsed to a midpoint); no line is drawn between quotes because no value is known between them. Dashed horizontals are the empirical friction/halt thresholds; E-tags mark events listed below.
Data table (3 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 0.05 | — | Pillsbury Policyholder Pulse |
| 2023-12-15 | 0.7 | — | Pillsbury Policyholder Pulse |
| 2025-07-10 | 0.7 | — | Industry sources via Reuters/gCaptain |
Black Sea war-risk premium
Log scale. Each mark spans the quoted low–high range (never collapsed to a midpoint); no line is drawn between quotes because no value is known between them. Dashed horizontals are the empirical friction/halt thresholds; E-tags mark events listed below.
Data table (3 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-20 | 0.025 | — | Bloomberg via Insurance Journal |
| 2022-04-11 | — | 1.0–10.0 | Bloomberg via Insurance Journal |
| 2025-12-01 | 0.5 | — | Shipping and insurance sources via Reuters/gCaptain |
Israeli port calls war-risk premium
Log scale. Each mark spans the quoted low–high range (never collapsed to a midpoint); no line is drawn between quotes because no value is known between them. Dashed horizontals are the empirical friction/halt thresholds; E-tags mark events listed below.
Data table (2 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-10 | 0.2 | — | Reuters via gCaptain |
| 2025-06-17 | — | 0.7–1.0 | Reuters via gCaptain |
Brent crude spot price
Source: fred. Tap or hover for values and per-point source links.
Data table (95 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 102.75 | — | fred |
| 2026-05-27 | 97.11 | — | fred |
| 2026-05-28 | 95.47 | — | fred |
| 2026-05-29 | 92.88 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-01 | 98.29 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-02 | 98.49 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-03 | 101.69 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-04 | 98.98 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-05 | 97.29 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-08 | 97.46 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-09 | 94.15 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-10 | 95.73 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-11 | 92.84 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-12 | 88.64 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-15 | 84.36 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-16 | 80.5 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-17 | 80.33 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-18 | 79.35 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-19 | 80.46 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-22 | 76.49 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-23 | 75.69 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-24 | 72.09 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-25 | 73.74 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-26 | 70.16 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-29 | 71.59 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-30 | 70.46 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-01 | 69.24 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-02 | 68.53 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-03 | 68.68 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-06 | 69.56 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-07 | 71.78 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-08 | 76.5 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-09 | 74.46 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-10 | 74.34 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-13 | 81.62 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-14 | 83.69 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-15 | 83.08 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-16 | 81.23 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-17 | 85.01 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-20 | 86.99 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-21 | 93.85 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-22 | 94.12 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-23 | 105.32 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-24 | 100.31 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-27 | 91.82 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-28 | 85.51 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-29 | 91.95 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-30 | 91.91 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-31 | 96.95 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-03 | 88.9 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-04 | 86.47 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-05 | 86.65 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-06 | 89.65 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-07 | 87.62 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-10 | 92.74 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-11 | 93.26 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-12 | 92.52 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-13 | 92.03 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-14 | 92.02 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-17 | 92.43 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-18 | 95.29 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-19 | 92.37 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-20 | 94.0 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-21 | 96.92 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-24 | 92.71 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-25 | 88.24 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-26 | 87.77 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-27 | 90.18 | — | fred |
| 2026-08-28 | 89.75 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-01 | 96.02 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-02 | 97.59 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-03 | 100.52 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-04 | 102.24 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-07 | 104.47 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-08 | 106.12 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-09 | 109.51 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-10 | 120.98 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-11 | 118.06 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-14 | 121.25 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-15 | 130.8 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-16 | 127.84 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-17 | 121.18 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-18 | 119.66 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-21 | 116.15 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-22 | 114.89 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-23 | 117.45 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-24 | 120.92 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-25 | 116.01 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-28 | 119.97 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-29 | 113.96 | — | fred |
| 2026-09-30 | 115.91 | — | fred |
| 2026-10-01 | 114.82 | — | fred |
| 2026-10-02 | 135.51 | — | fred |
| 2026-10-05 | 125.51 | — | fred |
| 2026-10-06 | 125.44 | — | fred |
Threshold guides are empirical observations from the 2019–2026 episode record — not model outputs. Shaded area spans the quoted low–high range where sources quote a range (never collapsed to a midpoint).