Underwriters reprice risk within hours to days of a shock. Trade flows, housing markets and insurer capital take months to respond. This site reads insurance prices and quantities as that signal — every point sourced to its primary document and passed through an accountable review before it is published.
Marine war-risk zones and the California residual market. Drag to rotate. Threshold bands are empirical observations from the 2019–2026 episode record — not model outputs.
Marine war-risk premiums reprice within hours-to-days of geopolitical shocks and lead physical trade flows — reroutings and transit declines. They are roughly coincident with commodity prices. The 0.5% (friction) and 5–10% (halt) guides are empirical observations from the 2019–2026 episode record, not model outputs.
Marine Conflict Monitor →Where regulators set the price, the posted premium is a political price and decouples from risk (Oh, Sen & Tenekedjieva 2026). The signal is quantities — non-renewals, residual-market (FAIR-plan) growth, insurer exits — which move months to years ahead of housing repricing.
Property Stress →Premium volumes, commercial rate indices and combined ratios describe the insurer capital cycle itself — ~6-year cycles driven by industry mechanics (Cummins & Outreville 1987). They are published as the control that keeps the other panels honest, never as standalone risk signals.
Global Rate Cycle →Every prose-derived finding passes a deterministic evidence gate and receives a recorded verdict. The public research ledger shows who reviewed it, the source, and the bounded thesis behind publication.
Research cadence & review log →An underwriter's price is a bet placed with real money on what happens next, updated as the odds change. The name is literal: this site reads the underwriters' signal — and separates it from the two other things that move insurance prices, the capital cycle and regulation, before treating it as information about the world. The methodology page states exactly what each panel does and does not claim.