Cadence · evidence · accountability

Research

A public record of when the system researched, what its review process published, and the thesis recorded for each finding.

Current ledger

Numbers

Published findings 61 Approved observations from review intake

Verdicts recorded 65 Approve, reject, hold and retract decisions

Held awaiting owner 1 Pending items requiring owner judgment

Vintage honesty

Cadence

Failed and missing runs remain visible; no gap is filled with a synthetic result.

Activity	Cadence	Last run	Status	Output
FRED	daily	14 Oct 2026, 18:07 UTC	success	179 rows written
OECD SDMX	annual · checked daily	14 Oct 2026, 18:07 UTC	success	52 rows written
EIOPA	quarterly · checked daily	14 Oct 2026, 18:07 UTC	success	76 rows written
Lloyd's JWC	daily	14 Oct 2026, 18:07 UTC	success	0 rows written
Trade press	daily	14 Oct 2026, 18:07 UTC	success	0 rows written
Review pass	after each pipeline run	14 Oct 2026, 18:16 UTC	success	Triaged three extraction candidates; none contained an explicit numeric qualifying premium, and no reviewable candidates were available.
Discovery sweep (harness)	daily	14 Oct 2026, 12:24 UTC	success	Checked eight registered-source surfaces and four current attack reports; no explicit qualifying war-risk premium was found and no candidate was submitted. S&P Global remained blo…
Expansion watch (harness)	quarterly	2 Oct 2026, 06:43 UTC	success	Quarter-end watch checked 11 registered-source release areas and found five exact updates, but all five candidate submissions failed because the submit helper returned permission …
Scheduler	off	not yet run	off	In-app scheduler is off

Newest first · approved only

Review log

Generated 14 Oct 2026, 21:43 UTC

Date	Series	Value	Source	Reviewer	Thesis
31 Dec 2024	California FAIR Plan total exposure	529 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Owner	Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This quantity describes regulated-market availability pressure; it is not a regulated premium level.
30 Jun 2026	Catastrophe bond market outstanding (Artemis)	65.6 USD billions outstanding	Artemis.bm	Owner	Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This observation is capital-cycle context, not a standalone risk signal.
1 Apr 2026	Global reinsurer capital (Aon)	785 USD billions	Aon Reinsurance Market Dynamics, April 2026	Owner	Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This observation is capital-cycle context, not a standalone risk signal.
31 Mar 2026	Marsh global composite commercial rate change	-5 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh press release	Owner	Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This observation is capital-cycle context, not a standalone risk signal.
30 Sep 2025	Marsh global composite commercial rate change	-4 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal	Owner	Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This observation is capital-cycle context, not a standalone risk signal.
20 Jul 2026	Aon data-center program insurance capacity	5 USD billions	Aon media room	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	Aon increased its Data Center Lifecycle Insurance Program capacity to $5 billion on 20 July 2026, from the prior published $3.5 billion level. This is program-capacity context and should not be read as a standalone pricing or risk signal.
30 Jun 2026	PICC P&C cumulative original premium income (China)	327529 RMB millions, year to date	PICC P&C interim results	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	PICC P&C reported RMB327,529 million of original insurance premium income for the six months ended 30 June 2026, compared with the previously published RMB182,995 million for Q1 2026. This is a year-to-date premium-volume measure and should not be read as a standalone pricing or risk signal.
31 Dec 2024	Global marine cargo premium (IUMI)	22.64 USD billions	IUMI Stats Report 2025 page	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
15 Apr 2026	Aon data-center program insurance capacity	3.5 USD billions	Aon media room, 2026-04-15	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
30 Jun 2026	Aon US public D&O pricing index	1.04 index, 2001 = 1.0	Aon Quarterly D&O Pricing Index	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
31 Jul 2026	Ivans US umbrella renewal rate change	7.42 % renewal rate change, monthly reading	Ivans Index July 2026, via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
31 Mar 2026	Marsh global cyber rate change	-5 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh press release (archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
31 Mar 2026	Marsh global casualty rate change	3 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh press release	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
30 Jun 2026	Marsh global property rate change	-12 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index page	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
31 Dec 2025	Singapore domestic general insurance GWP (GIA)	6.09 SGD billions	General Insurance Association of Singapore, 2026-03-25	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
31 Mar 2026	PICC P&C cumulative original premium income (China)	182995 RMB millions, year to date	PICC P&C investor announcement (HKEX-filed)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
21 Jun 2023	GIROJ fire reference rate revision (Japan)	13 % average revision	GIROJ English press release	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
23 Jun 2026	GIROJ voluntary auto reference rate revision (Japan)	14.4 % average revision	GIROJ English press release PDF	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
1 Jan 2026	Guy Carpenter global property-cat rate-on-line change	-12 % change at renewal	Guy Carpenter index, via Artemis	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
31 Dec 2025	Lloyd's market risk-adjusted price change	-3.7 % change, year over year	Lloyd's of London FY2025 results press release	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
30 Jun 2026	CIAB US average commercial premium change	-2 % change, quarter over quarter	CIAB Commercial P/C Market Survey Q2 2026, via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
30 Jun 2026	Marsh Asia composite commercial rate change	-5 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Asia Insurance Market Index page	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
30 Jun 2026	Marsh Europe composite commercial rate change	-6 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh press release (corporate.marsh.com, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
30 Jun 2026	Marsh UK composite commercial rate change	-8 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, via Reinsurance News	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
30 Jun 2026	Marsh US composite commercial rate change	-2 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.
1 Dec 2025	Black Sea war-risk premium	0.5 % of hull value	Shipping and insurance sources via Reuters/gCaptain	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	Shipping and insurance sources reported a 0.5% seven-day war-risk rate for calls to Ukrainian ports on 2025-12-01. The rate was below the prior 2022 Black Sea band of 1-10% but sat at the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the episode record; the threshold is not a model output.
10 Jul 2025	Red Sea war-risk premium	0.7 % of hull value	Industry sources via Reuters/gCaptain	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	Industry sources reported Red Sea war-risk premiums of about 0.7% of ship value on 2025-07-10. This matched the prior approved 0.7% observation and remained above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the episode record; the threshold is not a model output.
9 Jul 2026	Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium	2–6 % of hull value	Marcus Baker, Marsh, via Bloomberg/gCaptain	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	A Marsh broker reported Hormuz war-risk rates of 2-6% of vessel value on 2026-07-09. The range was above the prior 1% observation and crossed the empirical trade-friction threshold, while its upper end reached the empirical trade-halt range observed in the episode record; these thresholds are not model outputs.
30 Jun 2026	Marsh global composite commercial rate change	-6 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh press release	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 6% in the second quarter of 2026, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2026-06-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.
31 Dec 2025	Marsh global composite commercial rate change	-4 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-12-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.
30 Jun 2025	Marsh global composite commercial rate change	-4 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 4% in the second quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-06-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.
31 Mar 2025	Marsh global composite commercial rate change	-3 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 3% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-03-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.
31 Dec 2024	Marsh global composite commercial rate change	-2 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2024-12-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.
30 Sep 2024	Marsh global composite commercial rate change	-1 % change, quarter over quarter	Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 1% in the third quarter of 2024, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2024-09-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.
30 Jun 2026	California FAIR Plan policies in force	696562 policies in force	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 696,562 policies in force as of 2026-06-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Mar 2026	California FAIR Plan policies in force	684388 policies in force	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 684,388 policies in force as of 2026-03-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Dec 2025	California FAIR Plan policies in force	668609 policies in force	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 668,609 policies in force as of 2025-12-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.
30 Sep 2025	California FAIR Plan policies in force	645987 policies in force	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 645,987 policies in force as of 2025-09-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.
30 Jun 2025	California FAIR Plan policies in force	610179 policies in force	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 610,179 policies in force as of 2025-06-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Mar 2025	California FAIR Plan policies in force	573739 policies in force	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 573,739 policies in force as of 2025-03-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Dec 2024	California FAIR Plan policies in force	516313 policies in force	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 516,313 policies in force as of 2024-12-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.
30 Jun 2026	California FAIR Plan total exposure	768 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $768 billion as of 2026-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Mar 2026	California FAIR Plan total exposure	750 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $750 billion as of 2026-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Dec 2025	California FAIR Plan total exposure	724 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $724 billion as of 2025-12-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
30 Sep 2025	California FAIR Plan total exposure	696 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $696 billion as of 2025-09-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
30 Jun 2025	California FAIR Plan total exposure	650 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $650 billion as of 2025-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Mar 2025	California FAIR Plan total exposure	599 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $599 billion as of 2025-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
30 Sep 2024	California FAIR Plan total exposure	458 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $458 billion as of 2024-09-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
30 Jun 2024	California FAIR Plan total exposure	393 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $393 billion as of 2024-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Mar 2024	California FAIR Plan total exposure	340 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $340 billion as of 2024-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
31 Dec 2023	California FAIR Plan total exposure	311.64 USD billions of exposure	California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $311.64 billion as of 2023-12-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.
30 Jun 2026	Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium	1 % of hull value	Al Jazeera	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 1% of hull value on 2026-06-30. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.
23 Jul 2026	Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium	7.5–10 % of hull value	Al Jazeera	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 7.5-10% of hull value on 2026-07-23. This band reaches the empirical trade-halt range observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is an observation, not a model output.
16 Jun 2025	Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium	0.2–0.3 % of hull value	Reuters via gCaptain	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 0.2-0.3% of hull value on 2025-06-16. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.
23 Jun 2025	Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium	0.5 % of hull value	Reuters via gCaptain	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 0.5% of hull value on 2025-06-23. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.
10 Jun 2025	Israeli port calls war-risk premium	0.2 % of hull value	Reuters via gCaptain	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Israeli port calls war-risk premium of 0.2% of hull value on 2025-06-10. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.
17 Jun 2025	Israeli port calls war-risk premium	0.7–1 % of hull value	Reuters via gCaptain	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Israeli port calls war-risk premium of 0.7-1% of hull value on 2025-06-17. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.
1 Oct 2023	Red Sea war-risk premium	0.05 % of hull value	Pillsbury Policyholder Pulse	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Red Sea war-risk premium of 0.05% of hull value on 2023-10-01. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.
15 Dec 2023	Red Sea war-risk premium	0.7 % of hull value	Pillsbury Policyholder Pulse	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Red Sea war-risk premium of 0.7% of hull value on 2023-12-15. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.
20 Feb 2022	Black Sea war-risk premium	0.025 % of hull value	Bloomberg via Insurance Journal	Harness · gpt-5.6-sol	The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Black Sea war-risk premium of 0.025% of hull value on 2022-02-20. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

31 Dec 2024 California FAIR Plan total exposure 529 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Owner
Thesis: Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This quantity describes regulated-market availability pressure; it is not a regulated premium level.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Catastrophe bond market outstanding (Artemis) 65.6 USD billions outstanding

Source: Artemis.bm
Reviewer: Owner
Thesis: Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This observation is capital-cycle context, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

1 Apr 2026 Global reinsurer capital (Aon) 785 USD billions

Source: Aon Reinsurance Market Dynamics, April 2026
Reviewer: Owner
Thesis: Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This observation is capital-cycle context, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

31 Mar 2026 Marsh global composite commercial rate change -5 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh press release
Reviewer: Owner
Thesis: Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This observation is capital-cycle context, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

30 Sep 2025 Marsh global composite commercial rate change -4 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Owner
Thesis: Retrospective owner-authorized ledger reconciliation for an Appendix C observation published before the recorded-verdict ledger was introduced. The existing candidate and observation match the verified dossier on series, date, figure, unit, and registered source; no value was altered. This observation is capital-cycle context, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

20 Jul 2026 Aon data-center program insurance capacity 5 USD billions

Source: Aon media room
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: Aon increased its Data Center Lifecycle Insurance Program capacity to $5 billion on 20 July 2026, from the prior published $3.5 billion level. This is program-capacity context and should not be read as a standalone pricing or risk signal.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 PICC P&C cumulative original premium income (China) 327529 RMB millions, year to date

Source: PICC P&C interim results
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: PICC P&C reported RMB327,529 million of original insurance premium income for the six months ended 30 June 2026, compared with the previously published RMB182,995 million for Q1 2026. This is a year-to-date premium-volume measure and should not be read as a standalone pricing or risk signal.

Open series →

31 Dec 2024 Global marine cargo premium (IUMI) 22.64 USD billions

Source: IUMI Stats Report 2025 page
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

15 Apr 2026 Aon data-center program insurance capacity 3.5 USD billions

Source: Aon media room, 2026-04-15
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Aon US public D&O pricing index 1.04 index, 2001 = 1.0

Source: Aon Quarterly D&O Pricing Index
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

31 Jul 2026 Ivans US umbrella renewal rate change 7.42 % renewal rate change, monthly reading

Source: Ivans Index July 2026, via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

31 Mar 2026 Marsh global cyber rate change -5 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh press release (archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

31 Mar 2026 Marsh global casualty rate change 3 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh press release
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Marsh global property rate change -12 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index page
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

31 Dec 2025 Singapore domestic general insurance GWP (GIA) 6.09 SGD billions

Source: General Insurance Association of Singapore, 2026-03-25
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

31 Mar 2026 PICC P&C cumulative original premium income (China) 182995 RMB millions, year to date

Source: PICC P&C investor announcement (HKEX-filed)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

21 Jun 2023 GIROJ fire reference rate revision (Japan) 13 % average revision

Source: GIROJ English press release
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

23 Jun 2026 GIROJ voluntary auto reference rate revision (Japan) 14.4 % average revision

Source: GIROJ English press release PDF
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

1 Jan 2026 Guy Carpenter global property-cat rate-on-line change -12 % change at renewal

Source: Guy Carpenter index, via Artemis
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

31 Dec 2025 Lloyd's market risk-adjusted price change -3.7 % change, year over year

Source: Lloyd's of London FY2025 results press release
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 CIAB US average commercial premium change -2 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: CIAB Commercial P/C Market Survey Q2 2026, via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Marsh Asia composite commercial rate change -5 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Asia Insurance Market Index page
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Marsh Europe composite commercial rate change -6 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh press release (corporate.marsh.com, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Marsh UK composite commercial rate change -8 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, via Reinsurance News
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Marsh US composite commercial rate change -2 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The registered-source excerpt explicitly supports the submitted figure, reporting period, unit, and market or sector scope, and the deterministic gate confirms that it matches the verified Appendix C baseline. This observation is market-cycle context, not a standalone measure of underlying risk.

Open series →

1 Dec 2025 Black Sea war-risk premium 0.5 % of hull value

Source: Shipping and insurance sources via Reuters/gCaptain
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: Shipping and insurance sources reported a 0.5% seven-day war-risk rate for calls to Ukrainian ports on 2025-12-01. The rate was below the prior 2022 Black Sea band of 1-10% but sat at the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the episode record; the threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

10 Jul 2025 Red Sea war-risk premium 0.7 % of hull value

Source: Industry sources via Reuters/gCaptain
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: Industry sources reported Red Sea war-risk premiums of about 0.7% of ship value on 2025-07-10. This matched the prior approved 0.7% observation and remained above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the episode record; the threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

9 Jul 2026 Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium 2–6 % of hull value

Source: Marcus Baker, Marsh, via Bloomberg/gCaptain
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: A Marsh broker reported Hormuz war-risk rates of 2-6% of vessel value on 2026-07-09. The range was above the prior 1% observation and crossed the empirical trade-friction threshold, while its upper end reached the empirical trade-halt range observed in the episode record; these thresholds are not model outputs.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Marsh global composite commercial rate change -6 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh press release
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 6% in the second quarter of 2026, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2026-06-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

31 Dec 2025 Marsh global composite commercial rate change -4 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-12-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

30 Jun 2025 Marsh global composite commercial rate change -4 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 4% in the second quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-06-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

31 Mar 2025 Marsh global composite commercial rate change -3 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 3% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-03-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

31 Dec 2024 Marsh global composite commercial rate change -2 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2024-12-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

30 Sep 2024 Marsh global composite commercial rate change -1 % change, quarter over quarter

Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 1% in the third quarter of 2024, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2024-09-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 California FAIR Plan policies in force 696562 policies in force

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 696,562 policies in force as of 2026-06-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Mar 2026 California FAIR Plan policies in force 684388 policies in force

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 684,388 policies in force as of 2026-03-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Dec 2025 California FAIR Plan policies in force 668609 policies in force

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 668,609 policies in force as of 2025-12-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

30 Sep 2025 California FAIR Plan policies in force 645987 policies in force

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 645,987 policies in force as of 2025-09-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

30 Jun 2025 California FAIR Plan policies in force 610179 policies in force

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 610,179 policies in force as of 2025-06-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Mar 2025 California FAIR Plan policies in force 573739 policies in force

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 573,739 policies in force as of 2025-03-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Dec 2024 California FAIR Plan policies in force 516313 policies in force

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 516,313 policies in force as of 2024-12-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 California FAIR Plan total exposure 768 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $768 billion as of 2026-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Mar 2026 California FAIR Plan total exposure 750 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $750 billion as of 2026-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Dec 2025 California FAIR Plan total exposure 724 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $724 billion as of 2025-12-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

30 Sep 2025 California FAIR Plan total exposure 696 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $696 billion as of 2025-09-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

30 Jun 2025 California FAIR Plan total exposure 650 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $650 billion as of 2025-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Mar 2025 California FAIR Plan total exposure 599 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $599 billion as of 2025-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

30 Sep 2024 California FAIR Plan total exposure 458 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $458 billion as of 2024-09-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

30 Jun 2024 California FAIR Plan total exposure 393 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $393 billion as of 2024-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Mar 2024 California FAIR Plan total exposure 340 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $340 billion as of 2024-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

31 Dec 2023 California FAIR Plan total exposure 311.64 USD billions of exposure

Source: California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot)
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $311.64 billion as of 2023-12-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level.

Open series →

30 Jun 2026 Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium 1 % of hull value

Source: Al Jazeera
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 1% of hull value on 2026-06-30. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

23 Jul 2026 Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium 7.5–10 % of hull value

Source: Al Jazeera
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 7.5-10% of hull value on 2026-07-23. This band reaches the empirical trade-halt range observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is an observation, not a model output.

Open series →

16 Jun 2025 Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium 0.2–0.3 % of hull value

Source: Reuters via gCaptain
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 0.2-0.3% of hull value on 2025-06-16. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

23 Jun 2025 Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium 0.5 % of hull value

Source: Reuters via gCaptain
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 0.5% of hull value on 2025-06-23. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

10 Jun 2025 Israeli port calls war-risk premium 0.2 % of hull value

Source: Reuters via gCaptain
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Israeli port calls war-risk premium of 0.2% of hull value on 2025-06-10. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

17 Jun 2025 Israeli port calls war-risk premium 0.7–1 % of hull value

Source: Reuters via gCaptain
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Israeli port calls war-risk premium of 0.7-1% of hull value on 2025-06-17. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

1 Oct 2023 Red Sea war-risk premium 0.05 % of hull value

Source: Pillsbury Policyholder Pulse
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Red Sea war-risk premium of 0.05% of hull value on 2023-10-01. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

15 Dec 2023 Red Sea war-risk premium 0.7 % of hull value

Source: Pillsbury Policyholder Pulse
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Red Sea war-risk premium of 0.7% of hull value on 2023-12-15. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

Open series →

20 Feb 2022 Black Sea war-risk premium 0.025 % of hull value

Source: Bloomberg via Insurance Journal
Reviewer: Harness · gpt-5.6-sol
Thesis: The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Black Sea war-risk premium of 0.025% of hull value on 2022-02-20. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output.

Open series →