Research
A public record of when the system researched, what its review process published, and the thesis recorded for each finding.
Current ledger
Numbers
Published findings
36
Verdicts recorded
36
Held awaiting owner
0
Vintage honesty
Cadence
Failed and missing runs remain visible; no gap is filled with a synthetic result.
| Activity | Cadence | Last run | Status | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRED | daily | 22 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC | success | 182 rows written |
| OECD SDMX | annual · checked daily | 22 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC | success | 52 rows written |
| EIOPA | quarterly · checked daily | 22 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC | success | 76 rows written |
| Lloyd's JWC | daily | 22 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC | success | 0 rows written |
| Trade press | daily | 22 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC | success | 0 rows written |
| Review pass | after each pipeline run | 22 Aug 2026, 13:31 UTC | success | 36 verdicts recorded · Harness · gpt-5.6-sol |
| Discovery sweep (harness) | daily | 22 Aug 2026, 13:32 UTC | success | Registered-source sweep covered Hormuz, Red Sea, Black Sea, Israeli port calls, and the Lloyd's JWC page. Four gCaptain candidates were submitted: three explicit numeric quotes pa… |
| Expansion watch (harness) | quarterly | not yet run | never | No recorded run |
| Scheduler | off | not yet run | off | In-app scheduler is off |
Newest first · approved only
Review log
Generated 22 Aug 2026, 14:54 UTC
| Date | Series | Value | Source | Reviewer | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dec 2025 | Black Sea war-risk premium | 0.5 % of hull value | Shipping and insurance sources via Reuters/gCaptain | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | Shipping and insurance sources reported a 0.5% seven-day war-risk rate for calls to Ukrainian ports on 2025-12-01. The rate was below the prior 2022 Black Sea band of 1-10% but sat at the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the episode record; the threshold is not a model output. |
| 10 Jul 2025 | Red Sea war-risk premium | 0.7 % of hull value | Industry sources via Reuters/gCaptain | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | Industry sources reported Red Sea war-risk premiums of about 0.7% of ship value on 2025-07-10. This matched the prior approved 0.7% observation and remained above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the episode record; the threshold is not a model output. |
| 9 Jul 2026 | Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium | 2–6 % of hull value | Marcus Baker, Marsh, via Bloomberg/gCaptain | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | A Marsh broker reported Hormuz war-risk rates of 2-6% of vessel value on 2026-07-09. The range was above the prior 1% observation and crossed the empirical trade-friction threshold, while its upper end reached the empirical trade-halt range observed in the episode record; these thresholds are not model outputs. |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Marsh global composite commercial rate change | -6 % change, quarter over quarter | Marsh press release | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 6% in the second quarter of 2026, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2026-06-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal. |
| 31 Dec 2025 | Marsh global composite commercial rate change | -4 % change, quarter over quarter | Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-12-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal. |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Marsh global composite commercial rate change | -4 % change, quarter over quarter | Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 4% in the second quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-06-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal. |
| 31 Mar 2025 | Marsh global composite commercial rate change | -3 % change, quarter over quarter | Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 3% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2025-03-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal. |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Marsh global composite commercial rate change | -2 % change, quarter over quarter | Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2024-12-31. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal. |
| 30 Sep 2024 | Marsh global composite commercial rate change | -1 % change, quarter over quarter | Marsh Global Insurance Market Index via Insurance Journal | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The excerpt reports that global commercial insurance rates fell 1% in the third quarter of 2024, matching the quarter-over-quarter series value dated 2024-09-30. The Marsh index is capital-cycle context and control, not a standalone risk signal. |
| 30 Jun 2026 | California FAIR Plan policies in force | 696562 policies in force | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 696,562 policies in force as of 2026-06-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Mar 2026 | California FAIR Plan policies in force | 684388 policies in force | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 684,388 policies in force as of 2026-03-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Dec 2025 | California FAIR Plan policies in force | 668609 policies in force | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 668,609 policies in force as of 2025-12-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 30 Sep 2025 | California FAIR Plan policies in force | 645987 policies in force | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 645,987 policies in force as of 2025-09-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 30 Jun 2025 | California FAIR Plan policies in force | 610179 policies in force | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 610,179 policies in force as of 2025-06-30. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Mar 2025 | California FAIR Plan policies in force | 573739 policies in force | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 573,739 policies in force as of 2025-03-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Dec 2024 | California FAIR Plan policies in force | 516313 policies in force | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports 516,313 policies in force as of 2024-12-31. Policies in force are a quantity measure for this regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 30 Jun 2026 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 768 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $768 billion as of 2026-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Mar 2026 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 750 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $750 billion as of 2026-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Dec 2025 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 724 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $724 billion as of 2025-12-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 30 Sep 2025 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 696 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $696 billion as of 2025-09-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 30 Jun 2025 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 650 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $650 billion as of 2025-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Mar 2025 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 599 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $599 billion as of 2025-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 30 Sep 2024 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 458 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $458 billion as of 2024-09-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 30 Jun 2024 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 393 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $393 billion as of 2024-06-30. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Mar 2024 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 340 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $340 billion as of 2024-03-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 31 Dec 2023 | California FAIR Plan total exposure | 311.64 USD billions of exposure | California FAIR Plan (cfpnet.com key statistics, archived snapshot) | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The archived California FAIR Plan excerpt reports total exposure of $311.64 billion as of 2023-12-31. This is a quantity-of-exposure measure in a regulated line, not a posted premium level. |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium | 1 % of hull value | Al Jazeera | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 1% of hull value on 2026-06-30. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |
| 23 Jul 2026 | Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium | 7.5–10 % of hull value | Al Jazeera | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 7.5-10% of hull value on 2026-07-23. This band reaches the empirical trade-halt range observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is an observation, not a model output. |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium | 0.2–0.3 % of hull value | Reuters via gCaptain | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 0.2-0.3% of hull value on 2025-06-16. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |
| 23 Jun 2025 | Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium | 0.5 % of hull value | Reuters via gCaptain | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium of 0.5% of hull value on 2025-06-23. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |
| 10 Jun 2025 | Israeli port calls war-risk premium | 0.2 % of hull value | Reuters via gCaptain | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Israeli port calls war-risk premium of 0.2% of hull value on 2025-06-10. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |
| 17 Jun 2025 | Israeli port calls war-risk premium | 0.7–1 % of hull value | Reuters via gCaptain | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Israeli port calls war-risk premium of 0.7-1% of hull value on 2025-06-17. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |
| 1 Oct 2023 | Red Sea war-risk premium | 0.05 % of hull value | Pillsbury Policyholder Pulse | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Red Sea war-risk premium of 0.05% of hull value on 2023-10-01. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |
| 15 Dec 2023 | Red Sea war-risk premium | 0.7 % of hull value | Pillsbury Policyholder Pulse | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Red Sea war-risk premium of 0.7% of hull value on 2023-12-15. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |
| 20 Feb 2022 | Black Sea war-risk premium | 0.025 % of hull value | Bloomberg via Insurance Journal | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Black Sea war-risk premium of 0.025% of hull value on 2022-02-20. This is below the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |
| 11 Apr 2022 | Black Sea war-risk premium | 1–10 % of hull value | Bloomberg via Insurance Journal | Harness · gpt-5.6-sol | The verified Appendix B dossier supports a Black Sea war-risk premium of 1-10% of hull value on 2022-04-11. This is at or above the empirical trade-friction threshold observed in the 2019-2026 episode record; that threshold is not a model output. |