{"key":"war_risk.hormuz","title":"Middle East Gulf / Hormuz war-risk premium","unit":"% of hull value","signal_class":"price_free_market","intake":"review","cadence":"event-driven","feed_source":"tradepress","thresholds":{"friction":0.5,"halt":5.0,"label":"Empirical thresholds from the 2019–2026 episode record — not model outputs"},"last_fetch":{"at":"2026-08-22T13:19:09.008111","status":"success","stale":false,"last_error":null},"observations":[{"date":"2025-06-16","value":null,"value_low":0.2,"value_high":0.3,"midpoint_of_range":false,"source_url":"https://gcaptain.com/middle-east-conflict-drives-spike-in-war-risk-insurance-costs/#before","source_name":"Reuters via gCaptain"},{"date":"2025-06-23","value":0.5,"value_low":0.5,"value_high":0.5,"midpoint_of_range":false,"source_url":"https://gcaptain.com/middle-east-conflict-drives-spike-in-war-risk-insurance-costs/","source_name":"Reuters via gCaptain"},{"date":"2026-06-30","value":1.0,"value_low":1.0,"value_high":1.0,"midpoint_of_range":false,"source_url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/23/how-shipping-insurance-rates-are-rising-as-hormuz-bab-al-mandeb-shut-down#before","source_name":"Al Jazeera"},{"date":"2026-07-09","value":null,"value_low":2.0,"value_high":6.0,"midpoint_of_range":false,"source_url":"https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-war-risk-cover-climbs-as-shipowners-pull-back/","source_name":"Marcus Baker, Marsh, via Bloomberg/gCaptain"},{"date":"2026-07-23","value":null,"value_low":7.5,"value_high":10.0,"midpoint_of_range":false,"source_url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/23/how-shipping-insurance-rates-are-rising-as-hormuz-bab-al-mandeb-shut-down","source_name":"Al Jazeera"}],"events":[{"date":"2019-06-17","title":"Gulf of Oman attacks: supertanker war-risk premium >= $185,000/transit (~10x in 2 months)","source_url":"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2019/06/17/529537.htm","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-08-16","title":"JWLA-034","source_url":"https://lmalloyds.com/committee/joint-war-committee/","kind":"jwc_listing"}]}