Global Rate Cycle
These series track the insurance capital cycle — premium volumes, commercial rate movement, underwriting profitability. The cycle can fully mask risk: global commercial rates fell for eight straight quarters through the 2026 Iran war while reinsurer capital hit records.
Cycle series are controls and context, not risk signals
(Cummins–Outreville 1987). Cat-bond spreads additionally embed credit spreads
(Braun 2016). Subtract this cycle before reading any premium series as risk.
US non-life gross direct premiums written (OECD)
cycle_control loading…USD millions · annual · methodology
Data table (13 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-12-31 | 977228.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2013-12-31 | 1016571.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2014-12-31 | 1113379.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2015-12-31 | 1196733.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2016-12-31 | 1266131.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2017-12-31 | 1326068.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2018-12-31 | 1408663.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2019-12-31 | 1495079.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2020-12-31 | 1565690.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2021-12-31 | 1732648.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2022-12-31 | 1921087.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2023-12-31 | 2094904.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2024-12-31 | 2274544.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
US marine, aviation & transport gross direct premiums (OECD)
cycle_control loading…USD millions · annual · methodology
Data table (13 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-12-31 | 1900.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2013-12-31 | 1732.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2014-12-31 | 1658.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2015-12-31 | 1592.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2016-12-31 | 3156.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2017-12-31 | 1606.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2018-12-31 | 1659.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2019-12-31 | 1923.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2020-12-31 | 2211.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2021-12-31 | 2531.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2022-12-31 | 2831.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2023-12-31 | 3030.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2024-12-31 | 3032.0 | — | oecd_sdmx |
UK non-life gross direct premiums written (OECD)
cycle_control loading…USD millions · annual · methodology
Data table (13 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-12-31 | 80388.883 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2013-12-31 | 83702.009 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2014-12-31 | 85101.928 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2015-12-31 | 77328.83 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2016-12-31 | 94604.217 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2017-12-31 | 102012.36 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2018-12-31 | 103503.253 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2019-12-31 | 81336.977 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2020-12-31 | 80856.41 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2021-12-31 | 91685.063 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2022-12-31 | 115678.255 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2023-12-31 | 125352.599 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2024-12-31 | 138922.988 | — | oecd_sdmx |
UK marine, aviation & transport gross direct premiums (OECD)
cycle_control loading…USD millions · annual · methodology
Data table (13 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-12-31 | 5029.258 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2013-12-31 | 5504.037 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2014-12-31 | 4536.926 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2015-12-31 | 3470.545 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2016-12-31 | 8479.573 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2017-12-31 | 9699.009 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2018-12-31 | 9721.529 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2019-12-31 | 7848.342 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2020-12-31 | 7942.308 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2021-12-31 | 8267.486 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2022-12-31 | 10303.192 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2023-12-31 | 11949.279 | — | oecd_sdmx |
| 2024-12-31 | 12662.533 | — | oecd_sdmx |
EEA non-life gross direct premiums written, year-to-date (EIOPA)
cycle_control loading…EUR millions (year-to-date) · quarterly · methodology
Data table (39 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-09-30 | 280535.685533 | — | eiopa |
| 2016-12-31 | 351145.086539 | — | eiopa |
| 2017-03-31 | 146366.651904 | — | eiopa |
| 2017-06-30 | 216167.717909 | — | eiopa |
| 2017-09-30 | 292699.857354 | — | eiopa |
| 2017-12-31 | 367965.660077 | — | eiopa |
| 2018-03-31 | 141649.481637 | — | eiopa |
| 2018-06-30 | 225137.528297 | — | eiopa |
| 2018-09-30 | 301688.013294 | — | eiopa |
| 2018-12-31 | 385210.483493 | — | eiopa |
| 2019-03-31 | 150535.248443 | — | eiopa |
| 2019-06-30 | 239545.692309 | — | eiopa |
| 2019-09-30 | 330186.951736 | — | eiopa |
| 2019-12-31 | 419773.203212 | — | eiopa |
| 2020-03-31 | 157428.569364 | — | eiopa |
| 2020-06-30 | 249687.337104 | — | eiopa |
| 2020-09-30 | 337857.83711 | — | eiopa |
| 2020-12-31 | 431087.607069 | — | eiopa |
| 2021-03-31 | 163029.942693 | — | eiopa |
| 2021-06-30 | 261999.69411 | — | eiopa |
| 2021-09-30 | 356090.821794 | — | eiopa |
| 2021-12-31 | 452672.481697 | — | eiopa |
| 2022-03-31 | 173778.263143 | — | eiopa |
| 2022-06-30 | 279382.350112 | — | eiopa |
| 2022-09-30 | 379662.634939 | — | eiopa |
| 2022-12-31 | 483931.019352 | — | eiopa |
| 2023-03-31 | 185796.134018 | — | eiopa |
| 2023-06-30 | 298636.402894 | — | eiopa |
| 2023-09-30 | 405349.86719 | — | eiopa |
| 2023-12-31 | 516645.496977 | — | eiopa |
| 2024-03-31 | 198523.796918 | — | eiopa |
| 2024-06-30 | 321092.605546 | — | eiopa |
| 2024-09-30 | 435319.093144 | — | eiopa |
| 2024-12-31 | 555112.537718 | — | eiopa |
| 2025-03-31 | 212767.298366 | — | eiopa |
| 2025-06-30 | 340038.942925 | — | eiopa |
| 2025-09-30 | 463528.312094 | — | eiopa |
| 2025-12-31 | 588231.66387 | — | eiopa |
| 2026-03-31 | 221503.667933 | — | eiopa |
EEA non-life net combined ratio, year-to-date (EIOPA)
cycle_control loading…ratio (year-to-date) · quarterly · methodology
Data table (37 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-31 | 0.89 | — | eiopa |
| 2017-06-30 | 0.9 | — | eiopa |
| 2017-09-30 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2017-12-31 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2018-03-31 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2018-06-30 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2018-09-30 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2018-12-31 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2019-03-31 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2019-06-30 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2019-09-30 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2019-12-31 | 0.96 | — | eiopa |
| 2020-03-31 | 0.96 | — | eiopa |
| 2020-06-30 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2020-09-30 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2020-12-31 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2021-03-31 | 0.92 | — | eiopa |
| 2021-06-30 | 0.93 | — | eiopa |
| 2021-09-30 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2021-12-31 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2022-03-31 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2022-06-30 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2022-09-30 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2022-12-31 | 0.96 | — | eiopa |
| 2023-03-31 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2023-06-30 | 0.96 | — | eiopa |
| 2023-09-30 | 0.97 | — | eiopa |
| 2023-12-31 | 0.97 | — | eiopa |
| 2024-03-31 | 0.96 | — | eiopa |
| 2024-06-30 | 0.96 | — | eiopa |
| 2024-09-30 | 0.96 | — | eiopa |
| 2024-12-31 | 0.96 | — | eiopa |
| 2025-03-31 | 0.97 | — | eiopa |
| 2025-06-30 | 0.95 | — | eiopa |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2025-12-31 | 0.94 | — | eiopa |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.93 | — | eiopa |
US PPI: premiums for property & casualty insurance (BLS via FRED)
cycle_control loading…index · monthly · methodology
Data table (121 observations)
| Date | Value | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-07-01 | 145.5 | — | fred |
| 2016-08-01 | 145.8 | — | fred |
| 2016-09-01 | 145.5 | — | fred |
| 2016-10-01 | 146.9 | — | fred |
| 2016-11-01 | 147.1 | — | fred |
| 2016-12-01 | 147.3 | — | fred |
| 2017-01-01 | 147.4 | — | fred |
| 2017-02-01 | 147.5 | — | fred |
| 2017-03-01 | 147.5 | — | fred |
| 2017-04-01 | 149.2 | — | fred |
| 2017-05-01 | 149.3 | — | fred |
| 2017-06-01 | 150.4 | — | fred |
| 2017-07-01 | 150.4 | — | fred |
| 2017-08-01 | 150.4 | — | fred |
| 2017-09-01 | 150.7 | — | fred |
| 2017-10-01 | 150.9 | — | fred |
| 2017-11-01 | 150.9 | — | fred |
| 2017-12-01 | 152.1 | — | fred |
| 2018-01-01 | 151.9 | — | fred |
| 2018-02-01 | 152.0 | — | fred |
| 2018-03-01 | 152.1 | — | fred |
| 2018-04-01 | 152.6 | — | fred |
| 2018-05-01 | 152.8 | — | fred |
| 2018-06-01 | 152.6 | — | fred |
| 2018-07-01 | 153.1 | — | fred |
| 2018-08-01 | 153.3 | — | fred |
| 2018-09-01 | 153.5 | — | fred |
| 2018-10-01 | 153.5 | — | fred |
| 2018-11-01 | 153.5 | — | fred |
| 2018-12-01 | 154.1 | — | fred |
| 2019-01-01 | 154.0 | — | fred |
| 2019-02-01 | 154.2 | — | fred |
| 2019-03-01 | 154.3 | — | fred |
| 2019-04-01 | 154.4 | — | fred |
| 2019-05-01 | 155.1 | — | fred |
| 2019-06-01 | 155.0 | — | fred |
| 2019-07-01 | 155.4 | — | fred |
| 2019-08-01 | 155.5 | — | fred |
| 2019-09-01 | 155.7 | — | fred |
| 2019-10-01 | 156.0 | — | fred |
| 2019-11-01 | 156.0 | — | fred |
| 2019-12-01 | 156.3 | — | fred |
| 2020-01-01 | 156.3 | — | fred |
| 2020-02-01 | 156.4 | — | fred |
| 2020-03-01 | 156.4 | — | fred |
| 2020-04-01 | 156.1 | — | fred |
| 2020-05-01 | 156.4 | — | fred |
| 2020-06-01 | 156.8 | — | fred |
| 2020-07-01 | 156.8 | — | fred |
| 2020-08-01 | 156.8 | — | fred |
| 2020-09-01 | 157.0 | — | fred |
| 2020-10-01 | 156.9 | — | fred |
| 2020-11-01 | 156.8 | — | fred |
| 2020-12-01 | 157.1 | — | fred |
| 2021-01-01 | 155.1 | — | fred |
| 2021-02-01 | 154.7 | — | fred |
| 2021-03-01 | 154.6 | — | fred |
| 2021-04-01 | 154.6 | — | fred |
| 2021-05-01 | 154.8 | — | fred |
| 2021-06-01 | 155.3 | — | fred |
| 2021-07-01 | 155.965 | — | fred |
| 2021-08-01 | 155.965 | — | fred |
| 2021-09-01 | 156.092 | — | fred |
| 2021-10-01 | 155.994 | — | fred |
| 2021-11-01 | 156.038 | — | fred |
| 2021-12-01 | 156.455 | — | fred |
| 2022-01-01 | 156.595 | — | fred |
| 2022-02-01 | 157.223 | — | fred |
| 2022-03-01 | 157.384 | — | fred |
| 2022-04-01 | 157.821 | — | fred |
| 2022-05-01 | 158.05 | — | fred |
| 2022-06-01 | 158.657 | — | fred |
| 2022-07-01 | 159.711 | — | fred |
| 2022-08-01 | 159.832 | — | fred |
| 2022-09-01 | 160.115 | — | fred |
| 2022-10-01 | 160.091 | — | fred |
| 2022-11-01 | 160.199 | — | fred |
| 2022-12-01 | 161.804 | — | fred |
| 2023-01-01 | 163.187 | — | fred |
| 2023-02-01 | 163.397 | — | fred |
| 2023-03-01 | 163.719 | — | fred |
| 2023-04-01 | 164.076 | — | fred |
| 2023-05-01 | 164.912 | — | fred |
| 2023-06-01 | 168.065 | — | fred |
| 2023-07-01 | 168.326 | — | fred |
| 2023-08-01 | 168.454 | — | fred |
| 2023-09-01 | 169.555 | — | fred |
| 2023-10-01 | 169.573 | — | fred |
| 2023-11-01 | 170.112 | — | fred |
| 2023-12-01 | 170.507 | — | fred |
| 2024-01-01 | 170.9 | — | fred |
| 2024-02-01 | 171.555 | — | fred |
| 2024-03-01 | 172.152 | — | fred |
| 2024-04-01 | 172.968 | — | fred |
| 2024-05-01 | 174.447 | — | fred |
| 2024-06-01 | 175.102 | — | fred |
| 2024-07-01 | 175.49 | — | fred |
| 2024-08-01 | 175.788 | — | fred |
| 2024-09-01 | 177.52 | — | fred |
| 2024-10-01 | 177.649 | — | fred |
| 2024-11-01 | 177.82 | — | fred |
| 2024-12-01 | 177.713 | — | fred |
| 2025-01-01 | 177.864 | — | fred |
| 2025-02-01 | 178.388 | — | fred |
| 2025-03-01 | 180.565 | — | fred |
| 2025-04-01 | 180.634 | — | fred |
| 2025-05-01 | 181.014 | — | fred |
| 2025-06-01 | 181.145 | — | fred |
| 2025-07-01 | 181.295 | — | fred |
| 2025-08-01 | 181.939 | — | fred |
| 2025-09-01 | 184.483 | — | fred |
| 2025-10-01 | 184.485 | — | fred |
| 2025-11-01 | 184.532 | — | fred |
| 2025-12-01 | 185.116 | — | fred |
| 2026-01-01 | 185.198 | — | fred |
| 2026-02-01 | 185.186 | — | fred |
| 2026-03-01 | 185.809 | — | fred |
| 2026-04-01 | 185.848 | — | fred |
| 2026-05-01 | 185.878 | — | fred |
| 2026-06-01 | 185.724 | — | fred |
| 2026-07-01 | 185.739 | — | fred |
Marsh global composite commercial rate change
cycle_control loading…% change, quarter over quarter · quarterly · methodology
No approved observations yet. Data enters only after
human review of sourced candidates — this panel never shows placeholder or
interpolated values.
Catastrophe bond market outstanding (Artemis)
cycle_control loading…USD billions outstanding · quarterly · methodology
No approved observations yet. Data enters only after
human review of sourced candidates — this panel never shows placeholder or
interpolated values.
Global reinsurer capital (Aon)
cycle_control loading…USD billions · renewal seasons · methodology
No approved observations yet. Data enters only after
human review of sourced candidates — this panel never shows placeholder or
interpolated values.