{"key":"war_risk.black_sea","title":"Black Sea war-risk premium","unit":"% of hull value","signal_class":"price_free_market","intake":"review","cadence":"event-driven","feed_source":"tradepress","thresholds":{"friction":0.5,"halt":5.0,"label":"Empirical thresholds from the 2019–2026 episode record — not model outputs"},"last_fetch":{"at":"2026-08-22T13:19:09.008111","status":"success","stale":false,"last_error":null},"observations":[{"date":"2022-02-20","value":0.025,"value_low":0.025,"value_high":0.025,"midpoint_of_range":false,"source_url":"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2022/04/11/662371.htm#before","source_name":"Bloomberg via Insurance Journal"},{"date":"2022-04-11","value":null,"value_low":1.0,"value_high":10.0,"midpoint_of_range":false,"source_url":"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2022/04/11/662371.htm","source_name":"Bloomberg via Insurance Journal"},{"date":"2025-12-01","value":0.5,"value_low":0.5,"value_high":0.5,"midpoint_of_range":false,"source_url":"https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-war-risk-insurance-jumps-after-drone-strikes-on-sanctioned-tankers/","source_name":"Shipping and insurance sources via Reuters/gCaptain"}],"events":[{"date":"2019-06-17","title":"Gulf of Oman attacks: supertanker war-risk premium >= $185,000/transit (~10x in 2 months)","source_url":"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2019/06/17/529537.htm","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-08-16","title":"JWLA-034","source_url":"https://lmalloyds.com/committee/joint-war-committee/","kind":"jwc_listing"}]}